The VIX Gauge
The market's “fear gauge” — and what actually happened next, historically, every other time it looked like this.
Same band as today's close — the current level reflects a sustained stretch, not a single-day move.
That's the lower end of its historical range (26th percentile since 1990) — roughly unusual against the long-run average of 19.4 (median 17.6). A month ago it was at 15.85.
What happened next, historically
For every trading day since 1993 that the VIX closed in each band below, this is what the S&P 500 (via SPY, dividend-adjusted) actually did over the following 30/90/365 days — mean, median, and the full range, not just an average that hides two very different outcomes.
| VIX band | Trading days | +30 days | +90 days | +365 days | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Median | Range | Mean | Median | Range | Mean | Median | Range | ||
| 0–12 — Very low / complacent | 787 | +0.9% | +1.2% | -7% to +7% | +2.8% | +3.4% | -15% to +12% | +12.3% | +12.6% | -11% to +40% |
| 12–20 — Normal | 4474 | +0.8% | +1.4% | -33% to +14% | +2.5% | +3.4% | -42% to +25% | +13.1% | +14.4% | -44% to +53% |
| 20–30 — Elevated | 2482 | +0.8% | +1.5% | -28% to +15% | +2.3% | +3.9% | -36% to +23% | +6.8% | +12.0% | -47% to +53% |
| 30–40 — High fear | 497 | +2.5% | +3.6% | -30% to +15% | +6.8% | +8.0% | -28% to +24% | +19.4% | +22.2% | -40% to +50% |
| 40+ — Panic (rare -- 2008, March 2020) | 208 | +3.1% | +4.4% | -22% to +25% | +7.9% | +10.0% | -24% to +40% | +35.6% | +33.6% | -16% to +78% |
Worth being precise about sample size: those trading-day counts bunch up into far fewer distinct episodes for the rarer bands, since a single crisis keeps the VIX elevated for weeks at a stretch. VIX has closed at 30 or above in 25 separate episodes since 1990, and at 40 or above in just 9. The 40+ row's numbers above come from that handful of crises (2008, 2020, and a few others) repeated across many trading days each — not 208 independent events. Treat it as a strong pattern worth knowing about, not a statistical certainty.
Returns above are total returns (dividend-adjusted SPY closes). Past patterns describe what has happened, not what will happen — markets change, and small sample sizes cut both ways. This isn't investment advice.